For this project, you will need to acquire all of the data from FRED at the Federal Reserve bank of St.Louis. (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
The data you will need for this report are (with the FRED identifier):
Real GDP (GDPC1)
Potential real GDP (GDPPOT)
CPI Inflation (CPAUCSL)
Federal fundsrate (FEDFUNDS)
Convert all data to quarterly observations. The time period is 1960 through 2001.
For this project, you will use this version of the Taylor Rule:
FFR* = Inf +2.0 +0.5 (y – yp) +0.5 (Inf – Inf*)
where FFR* is the “target” Federal funds rate to be generated by the Taylor Rule y is the quarterly
growth rate of real GDP.yP is the quarterly growth rate of potential real GDP. Infis the quarterly CPI rate
of inflation, and INF* is the desired or target rate of inflation. For this assignment, set INF* to 2.0. I am
assuming that 2.0% is the equilibrium real federal funds rate. Using the above equation calculate FFR*
with the FRED data for the period 1960 through 2001.
Your assignment has two parts:
A. Determine when monetary policy has been according to the Taylor rule too expansionary or too
contractionary. To do this, calculate and plot the difference between the actual Federal funds rate (FFR)
and that generated by the Taylor Rule (FFR*); that is, FFR-FFR* Defineperiods of “expansionary”
policy as those when actual FFR is less than FFR*. Conversely, periods of contractionary” policy are
when actual FFR is greater than FFR* Neutral policy is when (FFR-FFR*) is fluctuating around zero.
Using the plotted data locate the most likely dates when monetary policy turned from generally
expansionary to generally contractionary. Draw a vertical line at these dates. In selecting these breaks,
look for general trends in the data: do not get lost in every time when FFR-FFR* turns positive or
negative. Provide a brief statement justifying your choices.
B. In a separate figure, plot the difference series (FFR-FFR*) along with the inflation rate. Use this
plot to make the case for your choices in pat A. In making your case, you may use any additional
statistical information to support your answer. Provide a brief statement justifying your choice.
Your report must not exceed two typed pages of text, using standard fonts and margins. Any tables,
charts, figures, etc. should be appended to the text. Your assignment is worth 100 points: 50 points for
correctly measuring part A and 50 points for part B.
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