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PIF Graduate
Development
Program 2024
Innovation and Problem
Solving for AI and Analytics
Thomas Y. Lee
2 – 6 June 2024
1
Program Schedule
AM Session
I
Managerial Decisions
and Uncertainty
Intro to AI and Analytics for Managerial Decisions
Innovation and Problem Solving for AI and Analytics
Introduction to Decision
Models
Prescriptive Models and
Risk
Falcon Case
Descriptive and
Predictive Models
Online Retail Sales and
Marketing (RFM)
NLP and Text Intuitions
Generative Models:
LLMs, Simulation and
Synthetic Data
Innovation, Metrics and
the Job to be Done
Kodak;
Rolls Royce
Personal Transportation
Prescriptive Models and
Sensitivity: What if
Falcon Case
Predictive Models and
Causal Reasoning
Music Recommendations
Prescriptive Models and
Linear Programs
Ultimate Fruit Case
Frame and Reframe
Twizzlers; Unilever;
Amtrak; Airbus; Siemens
Change Management
DBS
Monte Carlo Simulation:
Prescriptive and
Predictive Models
Falcon Case
Evaluating Descriptive
and Predictive Models
Manufacturing Defects
and Quality Control
Analytics and AI
Architecture
Pacific Gas and Electric
Imagine and Design
Starbucks,
Airbus redux and
Twizzlers redux
Innovation Portfolio
Management
DBS
Workshop
Dynatron Case
Workshop
Apple iPhone and iPhotos;
Sustainability and Aircraft
Emissions
Presentations
Break
AM Session
II
Lunch
PM Session
I
Break
PM Session
II
Workshop
Red Sea Shipping;
AI in Human Resources
Make and Experiment
Ford, Siemens redux
Final Exam
Overview
Course Objectives
Day 4
● Digital Transformation
within PIF. How to leverage
AI and Decision Models for
the purpose of innovating
and problem solving.
● Innovation is about solution experiences
● Data and Sense-making
● Evaluating investments.
Frameworks for evaluating
firms that purport to
leverage AI for competitive
advantage.
● Solution-making for AI
 Identifying and prioritizing challenges as Jobs to be
Done
 Framing and re-framing challenges as opportunities and
targeted outcomes
 Leveraging data to (re)design solution experiences
 Defining hypotheses and setting OKRs to testing
solution experiences
Five Minute Pitch for a PIF Portfolio Company
● Five Minute Presentation Deck
(PowerPoint only)
 All team members’ names
 What is the Job to be Done
 What data (quant and/or qual) supports the significance/impact
 What is the Innovative Solution (Experience)
 What is the status quo
 RAT of the job formulated as testable hypothesis (OKR)
 RAT of the solution formulated as a testable hypothesis (OKR)
1. SABIC
2. ALMARAI
3, MAADEN
4. STC
5. ARABIAN DRILLING
6. SAUDI ELECTRICITY CO
Or instructor permission
during the first break.
● Complete Template File w/ all team members’ names
(PowerPoint or Excel; the template is posted as Excel)
● Due on Canvas by Thu, 6 June 2024 @ 10AM local time
(this is the actual due date regardless of what Canvas says)
Big Ideas
● Innovation is about solution experience of a Job to be Done
● Maturity model of metrics – data measures the Job to be Done
● Data drives the cycle of Innovation
Intuitions
● Founded in 1888
● Profit margin ~80%
● 1996 annual revenue $16Bn (~$31Bn 2024)
Intuitions
● Founded in 1888
● Profit margin ~80%
● 1996 annual revenue $16Bn (~$31Bn 2024)
● Bankrupt in 2012
− 1975, First digital camera
− 1987, First OLED diode
− 1989, First digital SLR
− 1997, APS iX info exchange
− 2000, APS Advantix Preview
digital film hybrid
“It is very hard to find anything [with
profit margins] like color photography
that is legal.”
L.J. Thomas, SVP & Dir of Research, Kodak to WSJ, 1985
− Mid 90’s to 2003, >$2Bn digital R&D
− 2001, bought Ofoto (online photosharing)
− 2005, top-seller of digital cameras by
units
− 2005, first Wi-Fi enabled camera
(EasyShare-One)
Innovation Matches a Solution Experience to a Job-to-be-Done
“Hardware stores report that over one million men bought one-quarter inch drills in one year. Not one
of those million men wanted the drills. They wanted quarter inch holes in metal or wood. People
who buy life insurance don’t want life insurance; they want monthly income for their families.”
C.C. Wagner, Provident Mutual, Life Insurance Co.
“Income Check (Ad),” Somerset American, Pennsylvania, 12 Dec 1942.
Innovation Matches a Solution Experience to a Job-to-be-Done
“Hardware stores report that over one million men bought one-quarter inch drills in one year. Not one
of those million men wanted the drills. They wanted quarter inch holes in metal or wood. People
who buy life insurance don’t want life insurance; they want monthly income for their families.”
C.C. Wagner, Provident Mutual, Life Insurance Co.
“Income Check (Ad),” Somerset American, Pennsylvania, 12 Dec 1942.
Job to be Done
How did you get to here today?
Job to be Done
What if we could tell you that you could get from point A to point B in the city at the same
average speed as your car, but with the same mobility as a pedestrian, in a manner 100
times more environmentally friendly, and close to 100 times as energy efficient? We
thought that might make a big difference in helping cities become more fun, more
environmentally friendly, cleaner, and safer. We thought it would be a big deal, and I still
do.
Dean Kaman to Zach Schildhorn in Forbes, Jun 16
[T]he corporate market is almost unlimited.
Andy Grove, former CEO Intel
[T]he device could be as significant as the development of the personal
computer.
Steve Jobs, co-founder Apple
[It] will reach $1bn in sales faster than any company in history
John Doerr, Venture Capitalist
● $90MM in VC money; 10 years of development.
● Code-name “Ginger”
Segway Story
● $90MM in VC money; 10 years of development.
● Code-name “Ginger”; develop self-balancing,
battery-powered, motor-driven in secret
● Nov 18, 2002, officially released for sale to public.
Initial price, $4950
 Expected sales, 10,000 units/week
 Actual sales, 30,000 units in the first six years
● Early 2010, Segway is sold to British Millionaire, Jimi
Heselden
● Sept 27, 2010, Heselden dies in a Segway accident
● April 2015, purchased by Ninebot, a Chinese
company for more than $75MM
…
● June 2020 discontinued… 140,000 in ~20 years
Segway: Story-to-Date
• Segway (Ninebot) e-scooters are on the roads in
more than 100 cities
• 1,000 employees produce one million scooters/year
• E-scooter 2022 market size estimate: USD 33.7 Bn
• E-scooter 2032 revenue forecast: USD 88.75 Bn
• Bird, Lime, Uber, Lyft, Ford all use Segway
scooters.
“We knew this was the way future
transportation products would work,” said
former Segway lead engineer Doug Field,
who has since worked at Apple and Tesla.
“Anyone standing on something that’s
powered by electricity and a computer is a
Segway descendant.”
Lessons Learned
● Innovation and Problem Solving is about matching:
 A Need – what are you really trying to accomplish? Job to be Done?
 A Solution Experience – cave walls to digital imaging
Data and Solution Experience
Measuring success: the Job and the solution experience
We were starting out to make photography an everyday affair, to make the
camera as convenient as the pencil.”
George Eastman, Founder, Kodak
Kodak
Job-to-be-Done:
(Still)
“Kodak
Memories
Memories
Film
photos
Moment”
shared
captured
purchased
taken
(captured)
“Share
(Still)
(Still)
Paper/
moments,
photos
photos
chemicals
share life
shared
printed
sold
Data and Solution Experience
CPAP Adherence – measuring success: the need and the experience
CPAP
Usage
Alpha
Hypopnea
Index
Data and Solution Experience
Mobile Payments Platform
Data and Solution Experience
PayLah!:Cash-Transactions
PayLah! Txns/Unit Time
App Downloads
Merchant Subscribers
NPS
Increasing alignment with customer need
Technology Adoption Lifecycle
(Crossing the Chasm – Geoffrey Moore)
Number of Users
Scale in time or number of users
Mobile Payments Platform
Lessons Learned
● Innovation and Problem Solving is about matching:
 A Need – what are you really trying to accomplish? Job to be Done?
 A Solution Experience – as easy to use as the pencil
● Maturity Model of Metrics
 How closely do you measure the actual Job (memories captured and shared)
 How well do you measure the entire solution experience (device is on v. device is worn)
 How do you update your measures as technology evolves and diffuses (Kodak; DBS)
Problem Solving and Innovation as a Process
Problem
Problem to
Solve
Problem
Solving
Solution
Empathize
Define
(Frame & Reframe)
Ideation
Prototype Testing
“Will Result in …”
Business Outcome
“We’ll know we’ve
succeeded when”
“We believe that this
capability”
Test Concepts
Observe and Notice
Frame and
ReFrame
Imagine and Design
Make and
Experiment
Design Thinking
Hypothesis Driven
Development
Innovation Cycle
Problem Solving and Innovation as a Process
Frame & Reframe
Imagine & Design
Observe & Notice
Make &
Experiment
Adapted from:
Andrea Bonaccorsi & Paola Giuri, 2000.
Data Drives the Cycle of Innovation
METRICS
Acceleration
Velocity
Jet Engine Adoption
(Sales)
Durability
(time to next overhaul)
Fuel economy
Fuel economy
(Specific fuel consumption)
Bypass ratio
Pressure ratio
Turbo Inlet Temperature
Fan blade count, weight
width, strength
Spare parts revenue
Component reliability
(MTTF; MTBF)\
Data Drives the Cycle of Innovation
Frame & Reframe
Frame/reframe problems as
opportunities: Why, How
Imagine & Design
Observe & Notice
Identify and prioritize problems:
How Many, How Much
Make &
Experiment
Data Drives the Cycle of Innovation
Observe and Notice
How many, How Much
Frame and Reframe
Why and How
Data Drives the Cycle of Innovation
Observe and Notice
How many, How Much
Frame and Reframe
Why and How
Data Drives the Cycle of Innovation
Component
reliability
(MTTF;
MTBF)
Bypass ratio
Pressure ratio
Turbo Inlet
Temperature
Fan blade
width,
strength,
weight
Durability
(time to next
Why
overhaul)
How
Fuel
economy
(Specific Fuel
Consumption)
Frame & Reframe
Imagine & Design
Observe & Notice
Spare Parts
Revenue
(time to
match
original
engine value
8 – 25 yrs)
Fuel economy
(Specific Fuel
Consumption)
Fan blade
count; weight
Jet Engine
How Many
Adoption
How Much
(Sales)
Make &
Experiment
Lessons Learned
● Innovation and Problem Solving is about matching:
 A Need – what are you really trying to accomplish? Job to be Done?
 A Solution Experience – as easy to use as the pencil
● Maturity Model of Metrics
 How closely do you measure the actual Job (memories captured and shared)
 How well do you measure the entire solution experience (device is on v. device is worn)
 How do you update your measures as technology evolves and diffuses (Kodak; DBS)
● Data Drives the Cycle of Innovation
 Observe and Notice: How many, How much
 Frame and Reframe: Why and How
 Align your metrics with your business model
● Your Turn
Data Inventory
For Your PIF Portfolio Company
MEASURING THE JOB TO BE DONE
What Metric?
Sales
Where is it from?
How is the metric
produced or
estimated?
Metrics Maturity Model
(Importance; ease of
measurement.
Alternative Sources
(Proxies for the measure)
For a large firm, focus on a particular business
unit or a single product line
• What is/are market “need(s)” that they propose to address with
digital technologies.
• How might you/they measure success in delivering on that Job
• How might your/their metric(s) evolve over time
This is an example
of the Data
Inventory for the
Rolls Royce
example. Consider
how to measure the
Job to be Done and
the data that is used
throughout the Job
Process. Add rows
as necessary. Think
about where the
data comes from in
the process and
whether there are
alternative sources
of this data. You
might add
annotations on the
data quality of your
sources.
Measuring the Job To Be Done
What Metric
Acceleration/
Velocity
How is the metric produced or
Where is it from
estimated
(What stakeholder
(pipeline process to produce the
produces the metric)
metric)
Aircraft performance; Engine
performance
FADEC
Sales
Inventory levels
Operations, Engine
Fuel Economy (FADEC)
Flight operations, Inventory
Maintence and Repair
MTBF
(MRO)
Flight operations
Sales
Spare Parts
Sales
Inventory levels, utilization
1
Metrics Maturity
Alternative Sources (proxies for the
Model (Why is this
metric important; how measure)
easy is it to measure)
Every flight
Flight operations
Budget cycle
Sales, Contracts, FP&A
Every flight
(Un)scheduled
maintenance
(Un)scheduled
maintenance
FP&A, Contracts, Fuel supply
FP&A, Replenishment Contracts
FP&A, Replenishment Contracts
2
Complete a Data
Inventory based
upon your
understanding of the
Job to be Done and
how it is currently
solved. How is
success measured?
What are alternative
measures of
success (if any)?
Where does the
data come from?
Consider all of the
data used in the asis process for
solving the Job to be
Done. Add rows to
the table as
necessary.
Comment on any
assumptions
regarding data
sources and data
quality.
Measuring the Job To Be Done
What Metric
How is the metric produced or
Where is it from
estimated
(What stakeholder
(pipeline process to produce the
produces the metric)
metric)
3
Metrics Maturity
Alternative Sources
Model (Why is this
(proxies for the
metric important; how
measure)
easy is it to measure)
4
This is an example
of the Framing and
Re-framing Web of
Abstraction
worksheet filled-in
for the Dove soap
problem discussed
in class. This is
just an example.
Fill in the Template
with your own Job
To Be Done.
Big Picture:
why is this outcome important?
(replace with text)
Big Picture:
why is this outcome important?
(replace with text)
Big Picture:
why is this outcome important?
(replace with text)
START HERE:
Your desired outcome
(replace with text)
What is stopping you from
achieving this outcome today?
(replace with text)
5
6
Self-esteem and
mental health
Belonging and
acceptance
Social norms and
expectations
Why buy soap?
Cleanliness
HMW Question
addressing this issue
7
8
This is an example
of the Framing and
Re-framing Web of
Abstraction
worksheet filled-in
for the Rolls Royce
aircraft engine
problem discussed
in class. This is
just an example.
Fill in the Template
with your own Job
To Be Done.
Big Picture:
why is this outcome important?
(replace with text)
Big Picture:
why is this outcome important?
(replace with text)
Big Picture:
why is this outcome important?
(replace with text)
START HERE:
Your desired outcome
(replace with text)
What is stopping you from
achieving this outcome today?
(replace with text)
9
What is stopping you from
achieving this outcome today?
(replace with text)
What is stopping you from
achieving this outcome today?
(replace with text)
What is stopping you from
achieving this outcome today?
(replace with text)
What is stopping you from
achieving this outcome today?
(replace with text)
10
Economic growth
and stability
Mobility, transportation
and commerce
Take-off, sustained flight
and landing
Why an aircraft engine?
Thrust, drag, acceleration
Tradeoff in
efficiency v. thrust
11
Tradeoff in
efficiency v. thrust
Temperature and
pressure
Weight
Blade design
Materials
Accurate fluid modeling/
thermodynamics
Insufficient
investment
12
Consider your
own problem
statement
Complete this
template starting
with the desired
outcome you
want to achieve
based on your
problem
statement
(orange) to
ladder to a
variety of
different
opportunities.
Big Picture:
why is this outcome important?
(replace with text)
Big Picture:
why is this outcome important?
(replace with text)
Big Picture:
why is this outcome important?
(replace with text)
Big Picture:
why is this outcome important?
(replace with text)
START HERE:
Your desired outcome
(replace with text)
13
What is stopping you from
achieving this outcome today?
(replace with text)
What is stopping you from
achieving this outcome today?
(replace with text)
What is stopping you from
achieving this outcome today?
(replace with text)
What is stopping you from
achieving this outcome today?
(replace with text)
14
Why is this important?
Why is this important?
Why is this important?
Why is this important?
Job to be Done
15
What is stopping you?
What is stopping you?
What is stopping you?
What is stopping you?
16
This is an example
of the Framing and
Re-framing
Customer Journey
worksheet filled-in
for the Amtrak
Passenger Train
example discussed
in class. This is
just an example.
Fill in the Template
for the status quo
customer journey
solving your own
Job To Be Done.
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
Process Steps
Learning
Planning
Depart
home
Entering
(Station)
Doing
Online
research
Coordinating
Transit to
station
Thinking
Expenses,
timing
Constraints
(e.g. budget)
Excited for Stress – do not
upcoming trip forget anything
Feeling
Coordinate
end-to-end
Opportunities
17
Anticipating;
Check delays
Step 5
Step 6
Step 7
Step 8
Step 9
Ticketing
Waiting
Boarding
Riding
Arriving
Kiosk
purchase
Luggage,
find seat
Conductor
Luggage, exit
train
Expense
Which train
car to board
Tasks upon
arrival
Stress – do not Excited for trip Relief at arrival; do
not forget anything
lose anything
underway
Advance
purchase
18
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Process Steps
Doing
Thinking
Feeling
Opportunities
19
Step 4
Step 5
Step 6
Step 7
Step 8
20
Process Steps
Stakeholders
Mix
Cook
Cook
Measure
(Generate)
Settings
(Analyze Prescribe)
Measure
(Generate)
Settings
(Analyze Prescribe)
Bake
Package
21
Cool
Extrude
Measure
(Generate)
Settings
(Analyze Prescribe)
Measure
(Generate)
Settings
(Analyze Prescribe)
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Bake
Bundle
Wrap
Measure
(Generate)
Measure
(Generate)
Measure
(Generate)
Settings
(Analyze Prescribe)
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Process Steps
Stakeholders
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Role 1
Role 2
Role 3
Role 4
Role 5
61
Step 4
Step 5
Step 6
Step 7
Step 8
62
Process Steps
Stakeholders
Mix
Cook
Cook
Initial Settings
(Analyze Prescribe)
Initial Settings
(Analyze Prescribe)
Bake
Cool
Extrude
Bake
Initial Settings
(Analyze Prescribe)
Initial Settings
(Analyze Prescribe)
Initial Settings
(Analyze Prescribe)
Package
Sensors
Measure
(Generate)
Measure
(Generate)
Measure
(Generate)
Measure
(Generate)
Measure
(Generate)
Feedback
Controls
Adjust Settings
(AnalyzePrescribe)
Adjust Settings
(AnalyzePrescribe)
Adjust Settings
(AnalyzePrescribe)
Adjust Settings
(AnalyzePrescribe)
Adjust Settings
(AnalyzePrescribe)
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
Bundle/Weigh
Wrap
Measure
(Generate)
Measure
(Generate)
Measure
(Generate)
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
Process Steps
Stakeholders
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Role 1
Role 2
Role 3
Role 4
Role 5
103
Step 4
Step 5
Step 6
Step 7
Step 8
104